hurricanemaxi
Joined: 08 Sep 2011
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 Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2011 12:34 pm Post subject: U.S. Economic Clout May Sink Palestinian Membership Quest at |
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Economics and political expediency may trump historical connections to determine whether two swing votes on the United Nations Security Council, Nigeria and Gabon, back the Palestinians’ bid for membership.
The two African nations were among the more than 100 countries that responded to Yasser Arafat’s 1988 declaration of independence by recognizing Palestine. This has led Palestinians to look to them for the ninth vote needed for approval by the 15-member council.
While the Palestinians have dispatched diplomats to the capitals of both nations to plead their case, they carry neither the economic heft nor the far-reaching influence of the U.S., which is working to block the Palestinians’ UN initiative.
“This is now realpolitik, pure and simple,” said Calestous Juma, a professor of international development at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Security Council members today met for about 75 minutes on the Palestinian application. They decided to have a committee of experts meet several times to examine whether the bid fits the criteria for membership.
The review process may drag on for weeks or even months while Mideast Quartet mediating group -- the U.S., European Union, Russia and the UN -- tries to restart direct peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. Still, a council member may call for a vote within 24 hours at any time.
U.S. Market
Both African nations have reasons to disappoint the Palestinians.
“Their market is the U.S., so why would they want to spoil that relationship?” said Juma.
Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad Malki told reporters yesterday that they have secured eight votes, and that they are lobbying for more support for their bid for UN membership. Approval requires nine votes, though passage would be blocked by a promised U.S. veto.
The stakes are also high for the U.S., keen to avoid further fallout from having to wield its veto. Such action might enrage an Arab population already disappointed by President Barack Obama’s refusal to endorse the Palestinian quest for statehood.
“The Americans are desperate not to have it go to a vote,” said Robert Danin of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former aide to Mideast Quartet envoy Tony Blair, the former U.K. prime minister. “Having to veto is the nightmare scenario for them.”
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