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Joined: 13 Mar 2011
Posts: 198
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 Posted: Thu May 12, 2011 4:15 pm Post subject: already anticipated |
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Upon being declared a tropical depression on October 15, computer forecasting models already anticipated the likelihood of rapid intensification due to the unusually favorable environmental conditions ahead of the system. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) showed the storm attaining a minimum pressure below 900 mbar (hPa; 26.58 inHg),[5] an intensity not attained by any Eastern Pacific hurricane on record.[18] The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) rapid intensification index, a storm's probability of intensifying by 35 mph (55 km/h) or more within 24 hours, was set at 60%.[5] This percentage quickly increased to 82% several hours later, 11 times higher than the sample mean. The official forecast from the NHC by their second advisory stated that Rick would become a Category 4 hurricane by October 19; however, they mentioned that due to the favorable environment, the storm could intensify faster than forecast.[7] Once Rick had become a Category 2 storm on October 16, the NHC increased their forecast peak intensity to 145 mph (220 km/h), a mid-range Category 4 hurricane.[11]
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